Tuesday, 13 May 2014

Scaremongerers and the China story...


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Many of us have heard a number of the conspiracy theories and often dubbed "scaremongering" concepts and predications about how China will rule the world by 2017...no 2021....or is it 2025?

Indeed I'm surprised that Hollywood has not totally caught on to the particular theme of encapsulating in a thrilling production of a world ruled by China...just yet!

Frankly there are pros and cons to every system and scenario. However a careful glance of the realities as they stand - lets consider some comprehensive real data:

The World Bank  has just released the latest purchasing power parity (PPP) estimates of GDP. These estimates are published once every 5 to 6 years, based on the elaborate survey of prices across the world conducted by the International Comparison of Prices (ICP) project. The new data affords an opportunity to revisit that hardy perennial of global policy questions: To what extent is the Chinese currency undervalued? (since clearly severe undervalue would suggest significantly greater PPP ratios, hence the monetary ability to purchase much more than most of us could ever dream of! 


However, the Wall Street Journal informs us that the latest results from the World Bank leave us with the following facts: "We can say with some confidence that the Renminbi is now fairly valued, which is a striking change from even 2005, when the currency was undervalued by nearly 30 percent. This change possibly heralds the end of nearly two decades of China’s mercantilist development strategy based on boosting exports by keeping the currency artificially low...." Thus: chances are nobody is buying out anybody 'lock, stock and barrel,' any time soon!

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